Introduction

Android is not doing as well as I wanted it to. I was hoping that the Linux-based mobile operating system would leave the folks at Apple shaking in their boots.

At the time of this writing, it isn’t like that. There are two major Android phones released in the United States; the HTC Dream (T-Mobile G1) and the HTC Magic (T-Mobile myTouch 3G).

Reviewers have had disappointing things to say about the HTC Dream, citing issues with the dimensions, battery life, speed, the camera, the “Leno chin”, and so forth. But especially, many considered the physical looks of the phone to be depressing.

“The original T-Mobile G1 was an ugly phone, a boxy clunker with a jutting chin…” –InfoSync

Now, I own an HTC Dream, and it doesn’t seem that bad to me. The battery life is fine, the phone is good looking enough, easy to type on, and Android is a pretty awesome operating system. However, the world does not seem to agree with me. If they did, Android would certainly be a lot more popular.

However, I believe that there is good fortune in the future of the Android platform, and potentially bad news for the iPhone, for two very important reasons that are outlined below.

Moar Android phones!

See, Google states there will be a whopping eighteen new Android phones coming out by the end of 2009. With the amount of promotion that involves releasing eighteen smartphones, consumers are sure to notice.

But the figure of “18 to 20 devices” only covers phones whose manufacturers have notified Google about the production. There could be even more Android phones coming down the pipeline. And even then, Android is coming to more things than smartphones. For example, there are rumors that Android will rejuvenate the Sony Walkman brand, though Android on other things won’t really take away marketshare from other players in the smartphone market.

With the market relatively flooded with Android phones (there really is only one iPhone, that is superseded by a newer model on a regular basis), consumers should be able to find a phone that suits them. For example, I decided against waiting for future Android phones because I really liked the G1′s physical keyboard (and that I needed a phone immediately).

A picture of an HTC Dream with the physical keyboard shown. Original photo on Flickr taken by romainguy.

But if you do not like physical keyboards, then the HTC Magic/T-Mobile myTouch 3G or HTC Hero might be more appealing to you. See how people that like physical keyboards, and people that don’t both can find an appealing Android phone?

More freedom than the App Store

And the sheer number of Android phones is not the only advantage that Android will gain against the iPhone; there is the strict iPhone app store and the relatively lenient situation involving Android apps.

With the well-publicized App Store rejection of Google Voice and related applications, people are getting a bit restless about how Apple controls the iPhone App Store. Hey, even the United States Federal Communications Commission is getting into the issue. That’s gotta mean something, right?

In contrast, while the official Android Market may be censored by the carrier, one can download any Android application file (extension .apk) from the Internet and use it.

The above picture shows the settings panel that allows you to set permissions to install any downloaded .apk file.

Now, what I think will happen is the large number of Android phones being released plus disenchantment with the iPhone app store may result in developers, and then consumers taking an interest in the Android platform.

Potential issues

This is a prediction, not a prophecy. I am not completely sure that events will transpire like I think that they will.

For example, there is potential that Apple could keep more people to the iPhone if they change their App Store policies. Regardless, though, I think that the massive number of Android phones and other devices released still ought to do considerable damage to the iPhone.

And I didn’t even mention how Palm’s WebOS, Symbian, Windows Mobile, etc. even play into this. On top of that, I only gave two reasons why Android could gain significant strength over the iPhone.

So am I right? Am I just another one of those darn Free Software advocates that wish for the iPhone’s popularity to decline? Discuss.